The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has seen a
steady increase in its budget and allocations since 1978, in line with
the leadership's desire to reform the force and expand its role. The
Navy essentially used to have a limited "white water" capability with
coastal defense responsibilities. The plans entailed the development of
a "green (or blue) water" capability, increasing the operational range
to some 400-600 miles, thereby enabling Chinese power projection in for
example the South China Sea. A stronger naval presence here could
influence such unsolved problems as Taiwan
and the Spratly Islands. The Chinese position in the region had already
been strengthened in 1974, when the Paracel (Xisha) Islands were taken
over from the Vietnamese.
These plans have resulted in the acquisition of,
i.a., submarines (Kilo's) from Russia. The growth of PLAN has also been
in line with the increased Chinese commercial shipping activities in
the region. The greater visiblity of PLAN in regional waters has caught
the attention of neighbors such as Japan, which was forced to pay a
more active interest in the defense of its sea lanes of communications
(SLOC) from 1992 onward.
One of the recurring themes in the discussion about
PLAN expansion has been the acquisition of aircraft carriers. Until
now, China lacks such vessels, despite regular reports that Peking
might be interested in buying one from the former Soviet Union, or is
in the process of actually reverse-engineering one that was sold as
scrap metal by Australia. Adding one or more aircraft carriers to PLAN
would alter the strategic balance in the region and would cause
considerable alarm in Japan and the United States. Operating one or
more aircraft carriers would strengthen China's military position
vis-à-vis Taiwan and the various contenders for the Spratly
Islands, potentially leading to a regional arms race. Other structural
PLAN-weaknesses seem to be the number of landing craft, maintenance and
logistics.
Under the PLA nuclear strategy of "minimal
deterrence", PLAN has been successful in developing nuclear-powered
submarines and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), which it
first tested in 1982. Although such missiles can pose a threat to the
American West Coast, it is unclear how accurate and reliable they are
in the light of a number of commercial rocket launches which were
plagued by numerous failures in recent years.
Sources:
ANG Cheng Guan, "The South China Sea Dispute Revisited", Australian Journal of International Affiars, vol. 54, no. 2 (2000), pp. 201-215
Flemming Christiansen & Shirin Rai, Chinese Politics and Society – An Introduction (London etc.: Prentice Hall 1996)
John Wilson Lewis & Xue Litai, China's Strategic Seapower – The Politics of Force Modernization in the Nuclear Age ( Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1994)
Andrew J. Nathan & Robert S. Ross, The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress – China's Search for Security (New York etc.: W.W. Norton & Company 1997)
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s.r.landsberger@let.leidenuniv.nl
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